"no one could have foreseen..."

the coming Recession ?

que up Upton Sinclair's axiom "It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

2003
john r. talbott publishes "the coming crash in the housing market"

2004
FED begins series of 17 consecutive quarter-point % rate increases

2005
u.s. bond yield curve inverted (2005/2006)
u.s. home sales peak in August, down 8% by year's end
oil spike (post Katrina)

2006
u.s. bond yield curve inverted (2005/2006)
GM sells GMAC (wtf?)
oil prices spiral downward (pre-election)

2007
oil prices dip below $50 before friday's close, Bush announces doubling of Strategic Petroleum Reserve on sunday (January)
oil prices almost double before year's end
New Century Financial Apr'07 - bankrupt
American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. Aug'07 - bankrupt
Jim Cramer goes "nuclear" on TV
US Home sales down 30% from Sept'05 peak
accelerated us govt policies (the "surge" more troops/money)
dow theory confirmations (Nov 2007)
GDI turns negative (Dec 2007)

2008
bank run on Northern Rock (January)
Bear Stearns $10 (mar, apr, may)
CountryWide bought by JP Morgan (june)
bank run on IndyMac Bank (seized 11july)
end of the first week of Q3 DOW begins it's descent (finally)